A surprising threat to democracy: our brains

How facts backfire
Researchers discover a surprising threat to democracy: our brains

By Joe Keohane
July 11, 2010

It’s one of the great assumptions underlying modern democracy that an informed citizenry is preferable to an uninformed one. “Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government,” Thomas Jefferson wrote in 1789. This notion, carried down through the years, underlies everything from humble political pamphlets to presidential debates to the very notion of a free press. Mankind may be crooked timber, as Kant put it, uniquely susceptible to ignorance and misinformation, but it’s an article of faith that knowledge is the best remedy. If people are furnished with the facts, they will be clearer thinkers and better citizens. If they are ignorant, facts will enlighten them. If they are mistaken, facts will set them straight.

Maybe not. Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It’s this: Facts don’t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger.

This bodes ill for a democracy, because most voters — the people making decisions about how the country runs — aren’t blank slates. They already have beliefs, and a set of facts lodged in their minds. The problem is that sometimes the things they think they know are objectively, provably false. And in the presence of the correct information, such people react very, very differently than the merely uninformed. Instead of changing their minds to reflect the correct information, they can entrench themselves even deeper.

“The general idea is that it’s absolutely threatening to admit you’re wrong,” says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher on the Michigan study. The phenomenon — known as “backfire” — is “a natural defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance.”

These findings open a long-running argument about the political ignorance of American citizens to broader questions about the interplay between the nature of human intelligence and our democratic ideals. Most of us like to believe that our opinions have been formed over time by careful, rational consideration of facts and ideas, and that the decisions based on those opinions, therefore, have the ring of soundness and intelligence. In reality, we often base our opinions on our beliefs, which can have an uneasy relationship with facts. And rather than facts driving beliefs, our beliefs can dictate the facts we chose to accept. They can cause us to twist facts so they fit better with our preconceived notions. Worst of all, they can lead us to uncritically accept bad information just because it reinforces our beliefs. This reinforcement makes us more confident we’re right, and even less likely to listen to any new information. And then we vote.

This effect is only heightened by the information glut, which offers — alongside an unprecedented amount of good information — endless rumors, misinformation, and questionable variations on the truth. In other words, it’s never been easier for people to be wrong, and at the same time feel more certain that they’re right.

“Area Man Passionate Defender Of What He Imagines Constitution To Be,” read a recent Onion headline. Like the best satire, this nasty little gem elicits a laugh, which is then promptly muffled by the queasy feeling of recognition. The last five decades of political science have definitively established that most modern-day Americans lack even a basic understanding of how their country works. In 1996, Princeton University’s Larry M. Bartels argued, “the political ignorance of the American voter is one of the best documented data in political science.”

Rush wrote: I've told you over the years that one of the reasons the Republicans are whatever the way they are in Washington is because Washington is a culture and a place that is run and dominated, not just politically, but socially, and I've always said that this is crucial to understand, 'cause this is the big clique aspect. Washington is dominated politically and socially by Democrats, by the left.

As over-leveraged investment houses began to fail in September 2008, the leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties, of major corporations, and opinion leaders stretching from the National Review magazine (and the Wall Street Journal) on the right to the Nation magazine on the left, agreed that spending some $700 billion to buy the investors' "toxic assets" was the only alternative to the U.S. economy's "systemic collapse." In this, President George W. Bush and his would-be Republican successor John McCain agreed with the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama. Many, if not most, people around them also agreed upon the eventual commitment of some 10 trillion nonexistent dollars in ways unprecedented in America. They explained neither the difference between the assets' nominal and real values, nor precisely why letting the market find the latter would collapse America. The public objected immediately, by margins of three or four to one.

When this majority discovered that virtually no one in a position of power in either party or with a national voice would take their objections seriously, that decisions about their money were being made in bipartisan backroom deals with interested parties, and that the laws on these matters were being voted by people who had not read them, the term "political class" came into use. Then, after those in power changed their plans from buying toxic assets to buying up equity in banks and major industries but refused to explain why, when they reasserted their right to decide ad hoc on these and so many other matters, supposing them to be beyond the general public's understanding, the American people started referring to those in and around government as the "ruling class." And in fact Republican and Democratic office holders and their retinues show a similar presumption to dominate and fewer differences in tastes, habits, opinions, and sources of income among one another than between both and the rest of the country. They think, look, and act as a class.

Although after the election of 2008 most Republican office holders argued against the Troubled Asset Relief Program, against the subsequent bailouts of the auto industry, against the several "stimulus" bills and further summary expansions of government power to benefit clients of government at the expense of ordinary citizens, the American people had every reason to believe that many Republican politicians were doing so simply by the logic of partisan opposition. After all, Republicans had been happy enough to approve of similar things under Republican administrations. Differences between Bushes, Clintons, and Obamas are of degree, not kind. Moreover, 2009-10 establishment Republicans sought only to modify the government's agenda while showing eagerness to join the Democrats in new grand schemes, if only they were allowed to. Sen. Orrin Hatch continued dreaming of being Ted Kennedy, while Lindsey Graham set aside what is true or false about "global warming" for the sake of getting on the right side of history. No prominent Republican challenged the ruling class's continued claim of superior insight, nor its denigration of the American people as irritable children who must learn their place. The Republican Party did not disparage the ruling class, because most of its officials are or would like to be part of it.

Never has there been so little diversity within America's upper crust. Always, in America as elsewhere, some people have been wealthier and more powerful than others. But until our own time America's upper crust was a mixture of people who had gained prominence in a variety of ways, who drew their money and status from different sources and were not predictably of one mind on any given matter. The Boston Brahmins, the New York financiers, the land barons of California, Texas, and Florida, the industrialists of Pittsburgh, the Southern aristocracy, and the hardscrabble politicians who made it big in Chicago or Memphis had little contact with one another. Few had much contact with government, and "bureaucrat" was a dirty word for all. So was "social engineering." Nor had the schools and universities that formed yesterday's upper crust imposed a single orthodoxy about the origins of man, about American history, and about how America should be governed. All that has changed.

Today's ruling class, from Boston to San Diego, was formed by an educational system that exposed them to the same ideas and gave them remarkably uniform guidance, as well as tastes and habits. These amount to a social canon of judgments about good and evil, complete with secular sacred history, sins (against minorities and the environment), and saints. Using the right words and avoiding the wrong ones when referring to such matters -- speaking the "in" language -- serves as a badge of identity. Regardless of what business or profession they are in, their road up included government channels and government money because, as government has grown, its boundary with the rest of American life has become indistinct. Many began their careers in government and leveraged their way into the private sector. Some, e.g., Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, never held a non-government job. Hence whether formally in government, out of it, or halfway, America's ruling class speaks the language and has the tastes, habits, and tools of bureaucrats. It rules uneasily over the majority of Americans not oriented to government.

2 Thessalonians 2:8-12 -And then shall that wicked one be revealed, whom the Lord shall consume with the spirit of His mouth, and shall destroy with the brightness of His coming--

even him, whose coming is according to the working of Satan, with all power and signs and lying wonders, and with all the deceit of unrighteousness in those who perish, because they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved.

And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie, that they all might be damned who believed not the truth, but had pleasure in unrighteousness

imaginethat wrote:I sure see the points you've made, Blade. I ask you to think about Ephesians 6:12, and think about it over and over.

Think about when the GOP had control of the presidency and the Congress, and think how it at most only slowed the slide to socialism and only slightly staunched the erosion of American Liberty. And saying that is a kind assessment, very kind.

The battle before us isn't political. It's spiritual.

Doc Trock wrote:Great discussion guys.....I think you know how I feel about all of this....especially that part about Satan casting out Satan.

I admit that I may be wrong about a great many things, but here is one thing I am most certainly right on:

The US government can never be reformed, restrained or reversed.

Here's how I see things:

Voting: makes no difference in the direction of the country. However, IF our votes are really counted accurately, voting is useful in that those of us who love freedom can get a measurement of how may other folks feel the same way, based on how they vote.

Taxes: they don't matter. High taxes, low taxes....the end result is the same....we're all going to be broke, unless we be banksters or highranking functionaries in the fascist-corporate complex. Like any other crappy 3rd world nation, America will have the uber-rich and the poor. The middle class is an anachronism....you need freedom in order to have a middle class. Why? The Federal Reserve.

War: We'll have it....always. However, at some point the war won't be "over there," because the terrorists will soon become our own people. Soon, we'll have war right here in America, and the "enemy" will be our own people.

Bladerunner wrote:

imaginethat wrote:I sure see the points you've made, Blade. I ask you to think about Ephesians 6:12, and think about it over and over.

Think about when the GOP had control of the presidency and the Congress, and think how it at most only slowed the slide to socialism and only slightly staunched the erosion of American Liberty. And saying that is a kind assessment, very kind.

The battle before us isn't political. It's spiritual.

Yes, I know.

This is framed and on my wall, above my computer.

imaginethat wrote:

Doc Trock wrote:Great discussion guys.....I think you know how I feel about all of this....especially that part about Satan casting out Satan.

I admit that I may be wrong about a great many things, but here is one thing I am most certainly right on:

The US government can never be reformed, restrained or reversed.

Here's how I see things:

Voting: makes no difference in the direction of the country. However, IF our votes are really counted accurately, voting is useful in that those of us who love freedom can get a measurement of how may other folks feel the same way, based on how they vote.

Taxes: they don't matter. High taxes, low taxes....the end result is the same....we're all going to be broke, unless we be banksters or highranking functionaries in the fascist-corporate complex. Like any other crappy 3rd world nation, America will have the uber-rich and the poor. The middle class is an anachronism....you need freedom in order to have a middle class. Why? The Federal Reserve.

War: We'll have it....always. However, at some point the war won't be "over there," because the terrorists will soon become our own people. Soon, we'll have war right here in America, and the "enemy" will be our own people.

Good grief Doc... you REALLY hate America, don't you?

(ah, jus' 'memberin' the good ol' days ....j/k j/k j/k)

You are most likely correct. I am hoping to explore with my fellow children of God, many of whom are Patriots, conservatives, libertarians, Tea Party members, the universal, global nature of the predicaments we face as human beings. A friend of mine is beginning a Colorado Tea Party forum, and when it gets going I'll share the address with y'all. I have been asked to write a weekly column for the site, and I will explore this idea of being a warrior in spirit, and engaging spirit .... essentially, being "insane" in the eyes of the insane world in which we live, being "insane" in the eyes of those who still cling to the idea that solutions to our problems lie in the political realm.

It's really time to understand this. We can go to the "apocalypse place" with the discussion I want to have with my brothers and sisters. We can, but it's not necessary, nor is it wise imo. No, we can, and should, have the discussion on how best to engage spiritual energy, spiritual power.

In a phrase, we must surrender to the Will of God. We've got to put aside the "wisdom" of this insane world. The call to do this is out, and has been out. Many of us KNOW the answers to the looming question are not to be found in the "wisdom" of the world.

I'll get down off my soapbox now. I do hope that we keep this discussion active. We really must look beyond this world for answers. The old way, the Satan ousting Satan approach, doesn't work, and is approaching its final curtain call anyway. Many on a gut level know this final failure looms. For many, the knowledge engenders an intense internal fear.

A temporal warrior knows fear, but uses courage to deal with it. A spiritual warrior in the mold of Christ transcends fear.

It's time to not only believe in the fantastic personal abilities Christ taught in His Gospel, it's time to live them, manifest them. Guaranteed, those of the world will call ya crazy if you try.

imaginethat wrote:It's not just America facing judgment. The world is Babylon.

Even in understanding the failure of Satan attempting to oust Satan, Americans, reflexively, continue to assume American exceptionalism.

It's not just America facing judgment.

It is sadly true that a very large proportion of
the population are strangers to the genuine spirit of the Christian
religion, and almost, if not altogether, unacquainted even with the
history of its facts and the extent of its influence in the land of our
inheritance. The standing complaint of human degeneracy remains
against us. Causes have been operating—and of late years with fearful
rapidity and strength—to produce a state of moral obliquity and
practical atheism among us, appalling in magnitude and of alarming
consequence. It has become of late quite customary to sneer at
the Puritanism of our fathers, and to speak with contempt of the
severity of their manners and the bigotry of their faith. This impious
treatment, by the present corruptors of society, of a generation of
men whose lofty principles and illustrious virtues they seem utterly
unable to comprehend, is well adapted not only to arouse the deepest
indignation, but also to excite the most lively concern. There are
two quarters from which these evil influences chiefly proceed. A
class of men without conscience, and reckless of all moral restraint,
have gained ascendency in public favor, and assume from their
prominent position to mould and direct the public sentiment of the
nation. Their general influence upon the public morals has been like
the wind of the desert,—poisonous, withering, and destructive. Another
and very large class of men moving in the lower walks of life
form a significant element of our American population, whose hard
and vicious instincts, gratified without compunction and paraded
everywhere in the most offensive manner, would seem to render
them well-nigh incapable of reformation. Apparently insensible to
all the nobler sentiments of public morality and virtue, and ever
ready to perform their congenial part in the general demoralization,
they demand that all the higher classes shall pander to their depraved
appetites, as the price of their patronage and support. In this reciprocal
play of the baser passions the common principles of morality
are daily sacrificed, and the strong and the weak join hands in carrying
down the nation to the very verge of ruin.


Moreover, the wanton neglect or abuse of our providential
blessings, and the unconscious apostasy from every sentiment of
purity and virtue, have served greatly to defile and degrade the mind
of a large portion of the community, and ill the centers of population
with a low and vulgar herd, who throng the open temples of obscenity
and infamy. Thus the materials are prepared for human guilt
and wretchedness, whose catalogue of crimes and woes exhausts
the power of language to express them. Beyond all this, political
controversy and partisan strife for the reins and spoils of power,
conducted without principle, and reeking with abuse, have taken so
fierce a form as often to have driven the best men from the arena
and left the worst upon the field.


Our unparalleled liberty
has degenerated into dissolute indulgence; we have been so long
without the burdens of government as to have almost forgotten the
price of our birthright and to have cast away the only safeguards of
its continuance; we have proved ourselves unworthy of our inheritance,
in our contempt of that virtue which alone affords protection
to society, in our blind disregard of the Christian foundations on
which alone the great interests of a nation can permanently rest.
Thus, at last, a majority of the people have grown wholly unmindful
of the authority and prerogative of God, and of the duties we owe to
him and to his creatures. The true life and soul of Christianity has
been to a great degree emasculated, and the very titles of Jehovah
and the tokens of his awful majesty in the earth have become to
multitudes among us as idle and unmeaning as the Grecian myths,
used, indeed, to furbish a paragraph with classic elegance or round
a period with sonorous emphasis, but completely divested of those
great, grand, solemn, and glorious thoughts which never can dwell
with vulgarity, profanation, and irreverence.

Now, if, under such conditions, Christianity should resume her
sway and bring the masses of the nation back to the pure and simple
virtues and to the stern and heroic spirit which marked the age of
our Revolutionary fathers, it will prove to be a moral miracle equal
to her first triumphs in apostolic days. Yet to this object all good men
should devote their energies and their prayers. In the firm conviction
that virtue must finally be supreme, and that a wise and beneficent
Providence has designed this continent to be the theater of the
yet more glorious conquests of Christianity, it is the mission and the
duty of all friends of evangelical truth to combine in the attempt to
hold and appropriate this country, with its resources, monuments,
and institutions, for an empire devoted to the spread of God’s kingdom
in the earth, and the universal reign of Jesus Christ.

Byron Sunderland, April, 1863.

In the firm conviction
that virtue must finally be supreme, and that a wise and beneficent
Providence has designed this continent to be the theater of the
yet more glorious conquests of Christianity, it is the mission and the
duty of all friends of evangelical truth to combine in the attempt to
hold and appropriate this country, with its resources, monuments,
and institutions, for an empire devoted to the spread of God’s kingdom
in the earth, and the universal reign of Jesus Christ.

Byron Sunderland, April, 1863.

The suggestion that a secular government can become an "empire" to help spread the gospel is simply wrong.

It ain't pretty to consider.....

imaginethat wrote:Imo, to become a Christian warrior one must acknowledge that America
never was what we were taught she was supposed to be, that she never was
a Christian nation, that she, from the beginning, was the object of the
lovers of power, and that she always has attracted and provided a
platform to operate for the lovers of money ... and that her very system
of government with its concepts born of Liberty, given the sinful
nature of humanity, ensured her own downfall.

Doc Trock wrote:

It ain't pretty to consider.....

No, it's not.

What I'm about to say is in no way opposed to what you're saying above, but I want to make a few caveats:

1.)The tendency of governments....all governments....has always been towards tyranny and all kinds of evil.
2.)America, as designed by the founders, keeps the government in check so that the evil tendencies it would inevitably display could be managed and kept to a minimum.

Thomas Jefferson opined that from time to time a good revolution was needed. I agree.

However, a violent revolution is not only repulsive from a moral standpoint; it is also impossible from a practical standpoint.

The concepts of freedom and constitutional, limited government are being reborn. We'll have a chance to put them in practice again....first in small communities, then in regions and then, perhaps in something larger.

When?

I'd say in 10 years max.

Unless Christ returns first.

Bladerunner wrote:

imaginethat wrote:Imo, to become a Christian warrior one must acknowledge that America
never was what we were taught she was supposed to be, that she never was
a Christian nation, that she, from the beginning, was the object of the
lovers of power, and that she always has attracted and provided a
platform to operate for the lovers of money ... and that her very system
of government with its concepts born of Liberty, given the sinful
nature of humanity, ensured her own downfall.

Based on all I have read about the Founding Fathers and on Morris' thousand page treatise, I disagree.